What Employers Can Expect from This Winter’s El Niño

NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño this winter, giving safety professionals regional guidance to prepare for likely worker hazards.

• By David Kopf
• Oct 15, 2026

Winter weather preparedness may take on added importance for workplace safety professionals this year, as one of the strongest El Niño events in decades continues to develop. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center reported in its Sept. 17 seasonal outlook that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a “very strong” event during fall and winter 2026-27. In fact, NOAA gives a 75 percent chance that this will be a historic event exceeding the strength of every El Niño since 1950.

That doesn’t mean every part of the country should expect the same winter, or that every workplace will encounter extreme conditions. Seasonal outlooks describe shifts in probabilities rather than predict individual storms. But NOAA’s outlook provides safety professionals with useful information for assessing which winter hazards deserve particular attention in their emergency and operational planning.

Regional Impact Will Differ

One of the clearest signals associated with the developing El Niño is increased precipitation across much of the southern United States.

From late fall through winter, NOAA says the dominant precipitation signal stretches across the southern and central United States and northward along the Atlantic Coast into New England. In California, probabilities favoring wetter-than-normal conditions increase as winter progresses, reaching 50 percent to 60 percent near the coast during portions of the winter outlook. Meanwhile, portions of the interior Northwest and Great Lakes are modestly favored for below-normal precipitation.

For safety professionals in California and other parts of the Southwest, increased precipitation can mean more than rain. Flooding, debris flows, slippery walking-working surfaces, road closures and power outages can affect both workplaces and employees traveling to and from them.

Across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast, heavy precipitation can similarly create flooding and transportation hazards. Along the Atlantic Coast, employers may need to prepare for combinations of heavy rain, flooding, snow and ice depending on temperatures during individual storms.

Employers in areas forecast to be warmer or drier shouldn’t interpret those seasonal trends as an all-clear. A warmer-than-normal winter can still contain periods of dangerous cold, snow and ice.

Turn the Outlook into a Plan

OSHA addresses winter preparedness through its Winter Weather safety and health resources. Although the agency does not have a specific standard covering work in cold environments, it notes that employers are responsible under the General Duty Clause, Section 5(a)(1) of the OSH Act, for protecting workers from recognized winter-weather hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm. Among OSHA's recommended safe work practices are developing work plans that identify potential hazards and protective measures, monitoring weather conditions during winter storms, maintaining reliable communication with workers and being prepared to stop work or evacuate when necessary.

For workplaces facing increased flood potential, OSHA provides more specific recommendations through its Flood Preparedness and Response guidance. The agency recommends having an evacuation plan in place before flooding occurs, including conditions that activate the plan, a chain of command, specific evacuation routes and exits, and procedures for accounting for personnel, customers and visitors. OSHA also recommends reviewing the plan with workers and staying informed about flood watches and warnings.

Those recommendations also dovetail with OSHA's broader Emergency Action Plan requirements under 29 CFR 1910.38 for workplaces where an EAP is required by an OSHA standard. Among other elements, the standard requires emergency escape procedures and route assignments, procedures for accounting for employees after evacuation, an employee alarm system and training for employees designated to assist with evacuation.

Flood planning shouldn't end when the water recedes. OSHA's Flood Preparedness and Response: Response/Recovery guidance identifies hazards workers can encounter during cleanup and recovery, including electrical hazards, contaminated water, mold, carbon monoxide, debris, drowning and hypothermia. OSHA also provides hazard-specific QuickCards  and fact sheets addressing many of these risks.

Traditional Winter Hazards Remain

Regardless of El Niño, traditional winter hazards like simple exposure remain. OSHA notes that environmental cold can affect any employee exposed to low temperatures, particularly outdoor workers. Wind and wet conditions can accelerate heat loss, increasing the potential for frostbite, hypothermia and other forms of cold stress.

Employers can reduce those risks by training workers to recognize cold-stress symptoms, scheduling frequent breaks in warm and dry locations, performing work during warmer portions of the day when possible, using a buddy system and providing appropriate engineering controls. OSHA also recommends monitoring employees’ physical condition and paying particular attention to new workers or those returning after time away.

Winter planning should extend beyond temperature. OSHA specifically identifies slippery roads and surfaces, windy conditions and downed power lines among winter hazards employers should address through training, engineering controls and safe work practices.

Although OSHA has no specific standard governing work in cold environments, employers remain responsible under the General Duty Clause for protecting workers from recognized serious hazards, including winter-weather hazards.

This article originally appeared in the October 2026 issue of Occupational Health & Safety.