When Oversight Pauses, Risk Doesn’t: What the OSHA Shutdown Reveals About Safety and AI
With enforcement slowed during the government shutdown, serious injury and fatality risks remain unchanged—highlighting why visibility, not just compliance, defines true safety performance.
OSHA’s enforcement might be slowing down during the government shutdown but workplace risks aren’t. In fact, this pause in oversight exposes a deeper truth about safety performance: serious injuries and fatalities (SIFs) haven’t declined, even as total recordable injury rates have.
That disconnect isn’t about enforcement, it’s about visibility. Many organizations still can’t see the potential SIFs hiding in their data, and that’s where we’re missing opportunities to prevent the worst-case scenarios.
AI Is Changing the SIF Equation
For decades, employers have measured success through lagging indicators like TRIR. But that approach has its limits. We’ve seen recordable injury rates drop dramatically over the last twenty years, yet workplace fatalities have stayed roughly the same.
That’s because only a small fraction (roughly 20% or fewer) of low-severity incidents ever had the potential to become a serious injury or fatality. The old assumption that you can control catastrophic events by controlling everything below them on the ‘safety triangle’ just doesn’t hold up in real life. SIFs don’t happen at different rates; they happen for different reasons.
This is where technology is changing the game. AI can help safety teams find those PSIF risks, the hidden near-misses that could have turned deadly and bring them to the surface before it’s too late. That kind of insight gives you the leverage to make real progress where it matters most.
The Shutdown as a Stress Test
With about three-quarters of OSHA’s staff furloughed, inspections continue but with sharper focus. OSHA is still targeting imminent danger situations, fatalities, severe injury reports, and follow-ups for high-gravity serious violations that haven’t been abated. If it’s serious, it’s still getting attention.
At the same time, informal conferences and rulemaking are on hold. Employers don’t have the option of talking through citations during the shutdown. You either agree to the citation or contest it within 15 working days, and that clock doesn’t stop.
Once the government reopens, a backlog of cases is inevitable. That means employers need their documentation and evidence ready now. If you’ve agreed to a citation, start abating hazards. If you’re contesting, make sure your records, logs, and corrective actions are organized and accessible.
Breaking Free from the Old Safety Model
The persistent plateau in fatalities shows that the old metrics have outlived their usefulness. Counting incidents isn’t enough. You can have a low TRIR and still have serious risks hiding in plain sight.
Instead, companies should focus on finding PSIFs within lower-severity incident data, something that’s often time-consuming and resource-intensive. It takes real effort to dig through the noise and find those signals. That’s why EHS pros need better tools and more support. AI gives you that. It can help identify patterns and risks faster and more accurately than a manual review ever could.
Using Downtime to Get Ahead
The shutdown should be treated as a wake-up call, not a break. If you’re anxious about what to expect from inspections right now, that’s probably a warning sign that you’re not ready.
Employers should use this time to:
- Tighten incident management and follow-up processes
- Share responsibility for safety tasks like inspections and corrective actions
- Review compliance against current OSHA National and Regional Emphasis Programs
- Improve data accessibility and documentation
It’s also the perfect time to take potential SIFs seriously. Those risks are often buried in the details of less serious incidents, and that’s exactly what OSHA’s limited enforcement staff will still be focused on.
Looking Ahead: AI as a Force Multiplier
AI-enabled EHS software can now process massive amounts of safety data to identify trends and PSIF indicators in real time. The right AI, built with real EHS expertise, doesn’t replace people, it empowers them. It takes what’s hidden in your data and makes it actionable. That’s how you prevent the next serious incident before it happens.
When the shutdown ends, the organizations that used this downtime to modernize will have the advantage. You can’t fix what you can’t see, and AI finally lets us see everything.
The Bottom Line
Even with enforcement slowed, the stakes haven’t changed. SIF prevention is still the true measure of safety performance. The companies that act now, tightening their systems, improving visibility, and leveraging AI to understand their risks, will be the ones leading when OSHA’s back in full force.