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Introduction to Advanced Back Calculation

What comes to mind when there is a toxic chemical release? The most obvious responses involve evacuation or shelter in place of the people in the path of the plume. To predict the path, area, and severity of a plume impact, you need a dispersion model. The basic information required to initiate a dispersion model is weather data, identification of the chemical, and the rate of the chemical release. However, the Achille' heel of this information is the release rate specification: "How big is the hole?" SAFER Systems has developed and patented a unique scheme for estimating the release rate. The algorithm to implement the scheme is called Advanced Back Calculation® (ABC). The idea basically involves “reverse engineering” a dispersion model. While we usually input the release rate to the dispersion model and obtain the concentration field for the plume-impacted area, in ABC we utilize the concentration field data to estimate the release rate.

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